2009 year is an unpleasant surprise for international economics expressed in economic, financial and in some countries a political crisis. The governments of many countries use cash infusion in order to come out of the recession. This method calls a monetary method. The aim of my work is to analyze the work of this method in the modern life and find the answer to the question whether the cash infusion can become an effective method.
Monetarism is an economic theory and a conception of the public management which defines the role of a monetary stock and a connection between a money supply and a mass of commodities. The monetary conception was invented by Milton Friedman, the leader of monetarists. In his opinion, regulation of emission, national currency rate, credit interest, tax rate, customs tariffs have the main influence on economics. Monetarists think that market economics by virtue of the internal tendency tends to a stability and self-regulation. The cause of all disproportions is an external intervention. Monetarists point out the connection between the change of the monetary stock and cyclic development and progress of economics. On basis of analysis of data was made a conclusion that coming of a new phase of cycle depends on the growth rate of money supply. For instance, the lack of money appears to be the main cause of depression. And the most important regulator which has an influence on economic life, is a “monetary impulse” or regular currency issue.
The Fridman’s conception is based on the quantity theory of money. On the theory, circulating money supply has an influence on the price level. It means that money has a function of the demand management and affects national measures. Milton Friedman upheld the principle of the exclusive importance of money’s steadiness for normal operation of economy. He confirmed that there is a consistent, though not absolute connection between rate of increasing amount of currency and increasing nominal income. But the change of nominal return comes after 6 or 9 months. In short run the changes have an influence on production and in long term on prices.
During the period of 2008-2009 the governments of some countries use the same method of controlling crises – they invest budgetary funds in economics, despite the fact that the sums of money were different, neither were the parts of investments. (table 1-2). In order to test the applicability of the ideas of Milton Friedman I analyzed the influence of monetary method on 3 monetary aggregates in 6 countries (Russia, USA, Great Britain. France, Germany and Japan).
Tab. 1 Monetary aggregates of 6 countries Country | Share index | Refinancing rate(%) | $ rate to other currency | Investment in economics ($ млрд.) | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | Russia, RTS | 1500[1] | 1066 | 11[2] | 10,75 | 24,98[3] | 31,83 | 222 | USA, S&P | 1282[4] | 998 | 3 | 0,25 | - | - | 3 539 | Great Britain, FTSE | 5550[1] | 4900 | 5 | 0,5 | 1,77 | 1,63 | 1 020 | France, CAC | 4400[1] | 3620 | 4,25 | 1 | 0,69 | 0,68 | 464 | Germany, DAX | 6400[1] | 5360 | 4,25 | 1 | 0,69 | 0,68 | 893 | Japan, Nikkei | 12600[1] | 10449 | 0,5 | 0,1 | 108 | 93,02 | 576 | Таb. 2 The changes of monetary aggregates Country | Change of stock index (2009/2008) (%) (picture 1) | Change of refinancing rate (2009/2008) (%)(picture 2) | Change of currency rate (2009/2008) (%)(picture 3) | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Russia | 71 | 98 | 127 | USA | 78 | 25 | - | Great Britain | 88 | 10 | 92 | France | 82 | 24 | 99 | Germany | 84 | 24 | 99 | Japan | 83 | 20 | 86 | Picture 1. Change of stock index (2009/2008) (%)
Picture 2. Change of refinancing rate (2009/2008)(%)
Picture 3. Change of currency rate (2009/2008) (%) All researched countries investing money in economics reduce refinancing rate in order to make the credit resource more attractive for enterprises. Although it hasn’t a result all countries have expected. The calculated indices show that effort of countries doesn’t lead to a successful outcome: currency rate has fallen like the stock rate. One possible reason can be a short term that can’t show a right result. It is also not a good indicator in terms of the cycle. Nevertheless, the chosen part of cycle indicates the inefficiency of this activity in short run.
Table of authorities: 1. RBC http://stock.rbc.ru/ 2. Central Bank of Russia http://www.cbr.ru/statistics/print.asp?file=credit_statistics/refinancing_rates.htm 3. Yandex. Currency rate http://news.yandex.ru/Russia/quotes/1.html#20071230-20081231 4.S&P500// http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/site/sp/en/us/page.topic/indices_500/2,3,2,2,8,1,2008,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.html 5. Friedman, Milton Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960. Princeton University Press 6. Friedman, Milton. Capitalism and Freedom. University of Chicago Press. 7. Spaltakov V. The history of economical studies, theme 11. Monetarism 8. Nikolaev I., Marchenko T. Costs and methods of struggle with a financial crisis: comparative analysis the system of Russia and other countries
Research supervisor: Eremina S.L., Professor, Doctor of Economics; Natalya A. Belenyuk, candidate of science, linguist. |