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he work  Methods of Social Forecasting is devoted to an important theme in the discipline  The Forecasting, projecting and modeling in the Social Work . Author is interesting in this actual theme of social science in exploration social problems. Forecasting in social work helps to save resources and time for social organizations and social state in a whole. The work  Methods of Social Forecasting is actual theme of contemporary social investigation. The object of the work is a social forecasting. The subject of my work is methodology of social Forecasting. The great strength of this investigation is the author s familiarity with work of the Employment Center and its methods. The aim of the work is to master methods of a social forecasting. To achieve this aim author of this work solves some tasks. The first task of the educational and scientific work is to define main notions of the investigation. The second task is to describe main methods of social forecasting. And the third task of the work is to define perspective methods from them for social work. The structure of the work  Methods of Social Forecasting includes an Introduction, two Parts, Conclusion and List of Sources and Literature. The Introduction contains characteristics of actuality of the work, information about sources and literature, object and subject, goal and tasks in it. The first Part  The theoretical foundation of social forecasting is devoted to defining of main notions of this theme and characteristics of methods in social investigation. The second Part is devoted to investigation of main methods of social forecasting and perspective methods of social investigation for social work. The Conclusion unites significant outputs and ideas of the work. Researcher has made very important contribution to own scientific preparation of a future diploma work. The List of Sources and Literature contains 25 items and the work has a representative sources and literature. @8;.5. 1@075F >D>@<;5=8O A?8A:0 8AB>G=8:>2 8 ;8B5@0BC@K !?8A>: 8A?>;L7>20==KE 8AB>G=8:>2 8 ;8B5@0BC@K 1. 5ABC652-040 .. @>3=>7=>5 >1>A=>20=85 A>F80;L=KE =>2>22545=89.  .: 0C:0, 1993.  240A. 2. 5ABC652-040 .. ;LB5@=0B82=0O F828;870F8O.  .: C<0=8B. 874. F5=B@ ;04>A, 1998.  352A. 3. 5ABC652-040 .., 0<5AB=8:>20 .. !>F80;L=>5 ?@>3=>78@>20=85: :C@A ;5:F89.  .: 54. >1-2> >AA88, 2001.  389A. 4. ;03>B2>@8B5;L=K5 CG@5645=8O >AA89A:>9 8<?5@88: 2 4-E B.  !1., 1900. 5. >;LH0O !>25BA:0O -=F8:;>?548O: 2 30 B.  3-5 874.  .: !>2. -=F8:;>?548O, 1970.  ".3. 6. >BL520 . . @>3=>78@>20=85, ?@>5:B8@>20=85 8 <>45;8@>20=85 2 A>F80;L=>9 @01>B5: CG51=>5 ?>A>185.  "><A:: 74. "#, 2002.  141A. 7. >;38= . ., @8F5=:> .., (0@:>2 $.. !>F80;L=>5 3>AC40@AB2>: CG51=8:.  .: 740B5;LA:>-B>@3>20O :>@?>@0F8O 0H:>2 8 0, 2003.  416A. 8. 0?8F0 !. ., C@4N<>2 !. ., 0;8=5F:89 . . !8=5@35B8:0 8 ?@>3=>7K 1C4CI53>. .: 0C:0, 1997.  255A. 8. 0@?>20 .. . 2545=85 2 A>F8>;>38N 8==>20B8:8: CG51=>5 ?>A>185.  !1.: 8B5@, 2004.  192A. 9. >;5A=8:>20 . . !>F80;L=>-M:>=><8G5A:0O AB0B8AB8:0: CG51=>5 ?>A>185.  =.: >2>5 7=0=85, 2002,  250A. 10. ><<5=B0@89 : >=AB8BCF88 >AA89A:>9 $545@0F88.  !1.: 8B5@, 2003.  208A. 11. !>F80;L=>-M:>=><8G5A:85 <>45;8 2 A>2@5<5==>< <8@5 8 2 >AA88:  2-E :=./ 564C=0@. 0AA>F80F8O 0:04. 0C:. ; >4 @54. . 8:C;LA:>3>.  .:  740B5;LAB2> -:>=><8:0, 2005.  911A. 12. 070@5BO= .. &828;870F8>==K5 :@878AK 2 :>=B5:AB5 #=825@A0;L=>9 8AB>@88. (!8=5@35B8:0  ?A8E>;>38O  ?@>3=>78@>20=85): 2  5 874.  .: 8@, 2004.  367A. 13. C:>2 . . !>F80;L=>5 ?@>5:B8@>20=85: CG51=>5 ?>A>185.  4-5 874., 8A?@.  .: 74-2> >A:. 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